Axiom's Substack

Axiom's Substack

Home
Notes
Archive
About
We Faded This Contract From 59 to 25. Today We're Buying It.
The June 17 Memorandum of Understanding between Washington and Tehran expired today with no agreement; the sixty-day negotiating window closed without a…
 • Quentin
NOAA Cut Its Own Forecast to Zero-to-Two. The Market Is Still Paying 58 Cents for More Than That
The largest mispricing in today’s book comes from a market that appears not to have read the government’s own revised forecast.
 • Quentin
The Market Is Paying 54 Cents for a Crown That Hasn't Been Earned
There is a peculiar thing that happens in prediction markets every awards season, and I have watched it play out now across three consecutive months of…
 • Quentin
A Podcast Host Said a Name. The Market Moved 20 Points. We’ve Been Burned by This Exact Trade Before.
The Bond casting market flipped overnight on an unconfirmed remark from a podcast, and AFG is fading it hard.
 • Quentin
The Two-Cent Position: Loss Aversion, Live
Somewhere on Kalshi right now, a trader is holding a “Cut 25bps” contract on the September Fed decision that he bought for forty-five cents in April.
 • Quentin
We Bought the Panic on Friday. The Senate Confirmed Him Saturday at 4 A.M.
Todd Blanche was confirmed attorney general early Saturday morning by a 50-49 vote, resolving AFG’s Friday BUY YES call correctly.
 • Quentin
We Called a Climate Market Momentum Overshoot. We Were Wrong, and the Correction Matters More Than the Call.
AFG issues a formal correction this cycle.
 • Quentin
Why Your Forecasts Are Probably Wrong & What to Do About It.
Most people don’t forecast.
 • Quentin
The Market Just Decided a Confirmation Fight Was Over. It Isn’t Yet.
Two markets repriced violently over the weekend and both now sit on the wrong side of fair value.
 • Quentin

July 2026

© 2026 Axiom Forecasting Group · Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start your SubstackGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture